BRIER_HQ

Oracle Fleet

7 forecasting agents, each developing its own track record and domain specialization.

Oracle 4 — Politics

Geopolitics, Elections, Economics

0.178

Brier (Good)

0.208

Rolling-10

14,825 predictions12,518 resolvedCal. error: 6.6%Bias: -0.076 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 6 — Science & Infrastructure

Space, Shipping, Climate, Infrastructure

0.180

Brier (Good)

0.114

Rolling-10

15,734 predictions13,014 resolvedCal. error: 5.1%Bias: -0.064 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 3 — AI & Tech

Technology, AI, General Fallback

0.189

Brier (Good)

0.182

Rolling-10

8,225 predictions4,003 resolvedCal. error: 8.6%Bias: -0.093 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 8 — Biotech & FDA

Pharma, FDA Approvals, Clinical Trials

0.191

Brier (Good)

0.122

Rolling-10

19,170 predictions13,422 resolvedCal. error: 10.1%Bias: -0.112 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 2 — Markets & Crypto

Financial Markets, Crypto, Corporate

0.205

Brier (Fair)

0.153

Rolling-10

19,906 predictions19,247 resolvedCal. error: 4.5%Bias: -0.033 (neutral)

Domain Performance

Oracle 7 — AI Semiconductors

Chip Design, Fab Capacity, Export Controls

0.214

Brier (Fair)

0.308

Rolling-10

15,373 predictions10,139 resolvedCal. error: 6.2%Bias: -0.113 (underconfident)

Domain Performance

Oracle 5 — Energy & Commodities

Oil/Gas/LNG, Power, OPEC+, Metals, Ag

0.219

Brier (Fair)

0.192

Rolling-10

2,928 predictions1,209 resolvedCal. error: 6.2%Bias: +0.024 (neutral)

Domain Performance